What actually happens, if never a vaccine against Covid is found 19?
The whole world is in the stranglehold of the Coronavirus. And all the world hopes in a speedy development of a vaccine against Covid-19. But what happens if it never is found? It wouldn’t be the first Time in history.
Dr. David Nabarro know: "There are viruses against which we have still not found a vaccine." And he says to "CNN": "We can’t be sure that there will be a vaccine against Covid-19 – and if there is a will, whether he will survive all the Tests on efficacy and safety." Dr. David Nabarro is the main occupation Professor of global health at the Imperial College in London. In addition to professionally, he destroyed with his statements dreams.
The whole world is currently a vaccine against the Coronavirus. Dozens of laboratories conduct research, there are first Tests on humans, a breakthrough seems only a matter of time. Politicians in Germany and the Rest of the world to summon the Holy Grail for the return to ordinary life. Doctors and politicians are predicting a vaccine in six months, a year, in one and a half years. Sure you can be nobody.
Because the truth is: There is no guarantee for a vaccine. Often the success of failure at the end of activities shortly before the end, often bursting in the medical research of vaccine-dreams are like soap bubbles – especially in the test phases.
A few examples:
- For nearly four decades, scientists search for a vaccine against Aids. Unsuccessful.
- 400,000 people are infected, according to the "CNN" each year with the Dengue fever. For a long time, research on a vaccine – to no avail.
- Against rhinoviruses or adenoviruses – cause as well as corona virus is commonly cold symptoms – it is very difficult to find a vaccine. There are, according to "CNN" only two vaccines against adenoviruses.
This inevitably leads to the question: What happens if a vaccine is found?
Actually, there are only two scenarios: A drug or a life with the Virus, which rapidly spread, and for some, fatal.
Drug against the Coronavirus
The example of Aids shows that What used to be a death sentence for Ill, is today a disease with the people thanks to the research an almost normal life. For Covid-19, there are already first promising findings. For example, one U.S. study, positive effects of the Ebola-By Remdesivir showed. The drug received recently a Eilzulassung in the USA to treat patients in hospitals in order. In the EU report " could, according to a media;in a few Tagen" an authorisation will be granted. Also the blood plasma treatments are among others in the race. However, it is still not clear what really when and to whom helps.
Keith Neal, a former Professor of epidemiology at the University of Nottingham, will examine the studies for scientific publications. He says on the subject to "CNN": "The researchers have the best drugs chosento continue to work." However, the studies for which he had to lie on the table, he must have all of the back. "They are not made correctly." It is only now that you have initiated serious studies. Results will "in the next Wochen" give.
Much more important, however, is to understand what the effects of a wide-purpose drug:
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Life with the Coronavirus
Thus, it is clear that If there is no vaccine, it will have to be a life with the Virus. Keith Neal says: A Lockdown can’t give it because of the damage forever. "We need to control the Virus is different." David Nabarro says: "It is very important for all societies to put themselves in a Position where you with the Virus as a constant danger can handle it. Social life and economic activity must be the Virus in our midst is possible."
But what would that mean in concrete terms?
A new "social Vertrag" brings Nabarro into the game. A "collective Pact for Survival and Gutgehen" in the face of the Virus. And he defines what that means to him.
- A wide range of System Tests on Covid-19, and tracking the chains of Infection would have to be implemented and maintained
- People should self-isolate as soon as you experience symptoms.
- With a cough, we go to work, but work from the Home Office. At least for office employees, Home Office, normality is.
- People should behave responsibly as "Helden" instead of "Ausgestoßene" be treated.
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The American tropical medicine, Dr. Peter Hotez explains to "CNN", what that would mean for our everyday lives. "We need a health system that allows for a lot of things, including: contact-tracking, diagnostics, on-the-job, early-warning systems for Social Distancing." This was complicated and never before been implemented. "If there is only little Transmission of the Virus, could also be re-sized events. But not permanently, and under the constant control of the policy and health authorities."
So it could be what many fear: a constant To-and-On. Fans are likely to for a few weeks, perhaps, in compliance with the rules into the stadium. And would then be excluded again as soon as the infections are on the rise. The same is true for Bars and Restaurants – especially in the Winter.
David Nabarro says: "The lock downs, which are currently loosened in the world, could come back at any time. Again and again, there would be disease outbreaks, and everything would be scaled back. This can affect entire countries or even individual regions."
That would be the reality without a vaccination.
Rotavirus vaccine inventor: "There is a vaccine geben" is;
An encourager however, there are. Even if the race for a vaccine is unpredictable. Paul Offit, an infectious disease specialist and one of the inventors of the vaccine against Rotavirus, says to "CNN": "I think there will be a vaccine. It is invested a lot of money, it is in the interest of all and the goal is clear.
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